Solsten CRE Financing Index
Q3 2026
Where commercial real estate debt is priced this quarter: the Treasury curve, SOFR, the coupon a base-case permanent loan implies, and how much leverage a coverage test allows at today's cap rates. Pulled from the Federal Reserve and the New York Fed, updated every quarter, free to cite with attribution.
The quarter in three numbers
10-year Treasury
5.29%
+85 bps vs prior quarter end, +113 bps vs a year ago
SOFR (overnight)
3.90%
+22 bps vs prior quarter end, -34 bps vs a year ago
Solsten base-case coupon
7.29%
10-year Treasury plus a 200 bps base-case spread. Loan constant 8.22% at 30-year amortization.
The 10-year Treasury, the reference rate for most fixed-rate commercial real estate loans, stood at 5.29% on September 30, 2026, up 85 basis points from 4.44% at the end of the prior quarter and up 113 basis points from 4.16% a year earlier. The 2-year sat at 4.88%, so the 2s10s curve is positively sloped by 41 basis points. SOFR, the base for floating-rate debt, was 3.90%.
View data table
| Week ending | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024-07-05 | 4.28% |
| 2024-07-12 | 4.18% |
| 2024-07-19 | 4.25% |
| 2024-07-26 | 4.20% |
| 2024-08-02 | 3.80% |
| 2024-08-09 | 3.94% |
| 2024-08-16 | 3.89% |
| 2024-08-23 | 3.81% |
| 2024-08-30 | 3.91% |
| 2024-09-06 | 3.72% |
| 2024-09-13 | 3.66% |
| 2024-09-20 | 3.73% |
| 2024-09-27 | 3.75% |
| 2024-10-04 | 3.98% |
| 2024-10-11 | 4.08% |
| 2024-10-18 | 4.08% |
| 2024-10-25 | 4.25% |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.37% |
| 2024-11-08 | 4.30% |
| 2024-11-15 | 4.43% |
| 2024-11-22 | 4.41% |
| 2024-11-29 | 4.18% |
| 2024-12-06 | 4.15% |
| 2024-12-13 | 4.40% |
| 2024-12-20 | 4.52% |
| 2024-12-27 | 4.62% |
| 2025-01-03 | 4.60% |
| 2025-01-10 | 4.77% |
| 2025-01-17 | 4.61% |
| 2025-01-24 | 4.63% |
| 2025-01-31 | 4.58% |
| 2025-02-07 | 4.49% |
| 2025-02-14 | 4.47% |
| 2025-02-21 | 4.42% |
| 2025-02-28 | 4.24% |
| 2025-03-07 | 4.32% |
| 2025-03-14 | 4.31% |
| 2025-03-21 | 4.25% |
| 2025-03-28 | 4.27% |
| 2025-04-04 | 4.01% |
| 2025-04-11 | 4.48% |
| 2025-04-17 | 4.34% |
| 2025-04-25 | 4.29% |
| 2025-05-02 | 4.33% |
| 2025-05-09 | 4.37% |
| 2025-05-16 | 4.43% |
| 2025-05-23 | 4.51% |
| 2025-05-30 | 4.41% |
| 2025-06-06 | 4.51% |
| 2025-06-13 | 4.41% |
| 2025-06-20 | 4.38% |
| 2025-06-27 | 4.29% |
| 2025-07-03 | 4.35% |
| 2025-07-11 | 4.43% |
| 2025-07-18 | 4.44% |
| 2025-07-25 | 4.40% |
| 2025-08-01 | 4.23% |
| 2025-08-08 | 4.27% |
| 2025-08-15 | 4.33% |
| 2025-08-22 | 4.26% |
| 2025-08-29 | 4.23% |
| 2025-09-05 | 4.10% |
| 2025-09-12 | 4.06% |
| 2025-09-19 | 4.14% |
| 2025-09-26 | 4.20% |
| 2025-10-03 | 4.13% |
| 2025-10-10 | 4.05% |
| 2025-10-17 | 4.02% |
| 2025-10-24 | 4.02% |
| 2025-10-31 | 4.11% |
| 2025-11-07 | 4.11% |
| 2025-11-14 | 4.14% |
| 2025-11-21 | 4.06% |
| 2025-11-28 | 4.02% |
| 2025-12-05 | 4.14% |
| 2025-12-12 | 4.19% |
| 2025-12-19 | 4.16% |
| 2025-12-26 | 4.14% |
| 2026-01-02 | 4.19% |
| 2026-01-09 | 4.18% |
| 2026-01-16 | 4.24% |
| 2026-01-23 | 4.24% |
| 2026-01-30 | 4.26% |
| 2026-02-06 | 4.22% |
| 2026-02-13 | 4.04% |
| 2026-02-20 | 4.08% |
| 2026-02-27 | 3.97% |
| 2026-03-06 | 4.15% |
| 2026-03-13 | 4.28% |
| 2026-03-20 | 4.39% |
| 2026-03-27 | 4.44% |
| 2026-04-03 | 4.35% |
| 2026-04-10 | 4.31% |
| 2026-04-17 | 4.26% |
| 2026-04-24 | 4.31% |
| 2026-05-01 | 4.39% |
| 2026-05-08 | 4.38% |
| 2026-05-15 | 4.59% |
| 2026-05-22 | 4.56% |
| 2026-05-29 | 4.45% |
| 2026-06-05 | 4.55% |
| 2026-06-12 | 4.48% |
| 2026-06-18 | 4.46% |
| 2026-06-26 | 4.38% |
| 2026-07-02 | 4.49% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4.56% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4.55% |
| 2026-07-24 | 4.69% |
| 2026-07-31 | 4.75% |
| 2026-08-07 | 4.65% |
| 2026-08-14 | 4.68% |
| 2026-08-21 | 4.74% |
| 2026-08-28 | 4.73% |
| 2026-09-04 | 4.78% |
| 2026-09-11 | 4.96% |
| 2026-09-18 | 5.01% |
| 2026-09-25 | 5.17% |
| 2026-09-30 | 5.29% |
View data table
| Week ending | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024-07-05 | 5.32% |
| 2024-07-12 | 5.34% |
| 2024-07-19 | 5.34% |
| 2024-07-26 | 5.35% |
| 2024-08-02 | 5.35% |
| 2024-08-09 | 5.34% |
| 2024-08-16 | 5.32% |
| 2024-08-23 | 5.33% |
| 2024-08-30 | 5.32% |
| 2024-09-06 | 5.34% |
| 2024-09-13 | 5.33% |
| 2024-09-20 | 4.83% |
| 2024-09-27 | 4.84% |
| 2024-10-04 | 4.83% |
| 2024-10-11 | 4.81% |
| 2024-10-18 | 4.84% |
| 2024-10-25 | 4.83% |
| 2024-11-01 | 4.86% |
| 2024-11-08 | 4.60% |
| 2024-11-15 | 4.57% |
| 2024-11-22 | 4.57% |
| 2024-11-29 | 4.59% |
| 2024-12-06 | 4.60% |
| 2024-12-13 | 4.60% |
| 2024-12-20 | 4.30% |
| 2024-12-27 | 4.46% |
| 2025-01-03 | 4.31% |
| 2025-01-10 | 4.30% |
| 2025-01-17 | 4.29% |
| 2025-01-24 | 4.34% |
| 2025-01-31 | 4.38% |
| 2025-02-07 | 4.35% |
| 2025-02-14 | 4.33% |
| 2025-02-21 | 4.34% |
| 2025-02-28 | 4.39% |
| 2025-03-07 | 4.34% |
| 2025-03-14 | 4.30% |
| 2025-03-21 | 4.30% |
| 2025-03-28 | 4.34% |
| 2025-04-04 | 4.35% |
| 2025-04-11 | 4.33% |
| 2025-04-17 | 4.32% |
| 2025-04-25 | 4.33% |
| 2025-05-02 | 4.36% |
| 2025-05-09 | 4.28% |
| 2025-05-16 | 4.30% |
| 2025-05-23 | 4.26% |
| 2025-05-30 | 4.35% |
| 2025-06-06 | 4.29% |
| 2025-06-13 | 4.28% |
| 2025-06-20 | 4.29% |
| 2025-06-27 | 4.39% |
| 2025-07-03 | 4.35% |
| 2025-07-11 | 4.31% |
| 2025-07-18 | 4.30% |
| 2025-07-25 | 4.36% |
| 2025-08-01 | 4.34% |
| 2025-08-08 | 4.35% |
| 2025-08-15 | 4.36% |
| 2025-08-22 | 4.36% |
| 2025-08-29 | 4.34% |
| 2025-09-05 | 4.42% |
| 2025-09-12 | 4.42% |
| 2025-09-19 | 4.14% |
| 2025-09-26 | 4.16% |
| 2025-10-03 | 4.18% |
| 2025-10-10 | 4.15% |
| 2025-10-17 | 4.18% |
| 2025-10-24 | 4.24% |
| 2025-10-31 | 4.22% |
| 2025-11-07 | 3.93% |
| 2025-11-14 | 3.95% |
| 2025-11-21 | 3.93% |
| 2025-11-28 | 4.12% |
| 2025-12-05 | 3.93% |
| 2025-12-12 | 3.67% |
| 2025-12-19 | 3.66% |
| 2025-12-26 | 3.76% |
| 2026-01-02 | 3.75% |
| 2026-01-09 | 3.64% |
| 2026-01-16 | 3.65% |
| 2026-01-23 | 3.65% |
| 2026-01-30 | 3.68% |
| 2026-02-06 | 3.64% |
| 2026-02-13 | 3.66% |
| 2026-02-20 | 3.66% |
| 2026-02-27 | 3.68% |
| 2026-03-06 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-13 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-20 | 3.62% |
| 2026-03-27 | 3.63% |
| 2026-04-02 | 3.66% |
| 2026-04-10 | 3.61% |
| 2026-04-17 | 3.65% |
| 2026-04-24 | 3.66% |
| 2026-05-01 | 3.64% |
| 2026-05-08 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-15 | 3.55% |
| 2026-05-22 | 3.55% |
| 2026-05-29 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-05 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.65% |
| 2026-06-18 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.62% |
| 2026-07-02 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.55% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3.59% |
| 2026-07-24 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.66% |
| 2026-08-07 | 3.62% |
| 2026-08-14 | 3.62% |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.65% |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.65% |
| 2026-09-04 | 3.65% |
| 2026-09-11 | 3.62% |
| 2026-09-18 | 3.85% |
| 2026-09-25 | 3.90% |
| 2026-09-30 | 3.90% |
Treasury curve
| Tenor | Quarter end | Prior quarter end | Change | Year ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 4.20% | 3.87% | +33 bps | 4.02% | +18 bps |
| 2Y | 4.88% | 4.14% | +74 bps | 3.60% | +128 bps |
| 5Y | 5.09% | 4.19% | +90 bps | 3.74% | +135 bps |
| 7Y | 5.19% | 4.30% | +89 bps | 3.93% | +126 bps |
| 10Y | 5.29% | 4.44% | +85 bps | 4.16% | +113 bps |
| 30Y | 5.64% | 4.91% | +73 bps | 4.73% | +91 bps |
Constant-maturity yields, investment basis. Prior quarter end June 30, 2026; year ago September 30, 2025. Values are the last observation on or before each date.
What the rate means for leverage
A lender sizes a loan to a minimum debt service coverage ratio. At a given cap rate the DSCR test caps leverage at cap rate divided by (DSCR times loan constant), regardless of the LTV limit. With a base-case coupon of 7.29% the 30-year loan constant is 8.22% and the 25-year constant is 8.70%. The table shows the maximum LTV the coverage test allows. At a 6.5% cap rate and a 1.25x test on 30-year amortization, that is 63.3% LTV.
| Cap rate | Max LTV, 1.25x, 30-yr | Max LTV, 1.20x, 30-yr | Max LTV, 1.25x, 25-yr | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 48.7% | 50.7% | 46.0% | Negative |
| 5.5% | 53.5% | 55.8% | 50.5% | Negative |
| 6.0% | 58.4% | 60.8% | 55.1% | Negative |
| 6.5% | 63.3% | 65.9% | 59.7% | Negative |
| 7.0% | 68.1% | 71.0% | 64.3% | Negative |
| 7.5% | 73.0% | 76.0% | 68.9% | Negative |
| 8.0% | 77.9% | 81.1% | 73.5% | Negative |
Leverage is positive when the cap rate exceeds the loan constant (8.22% at 30 years), so borrowing raises the cash-on-cash return. The 200 bps spread is Solsten's base-case underwriting assumption, not a quoted market spread; actual spreads vary by lender, asset, and leverage. LTVs above what a lender's own LTV ceiling allows are capped by that ceiling.
Bank credit conditions
CRE loan delinquency rate, all commercial banks
1.53%
Q2 2026; 1.56% the prior quarter, 1.57% a year earlier
Net % of banks tightening CRE standards
-11.3%
Q3 2026 survey; 11.5% a year earlier. Negative means more banks eased than tightened.
Bank CRE loans outstanding
$3.13T
August 2026; 3.4% vs a year earlier
Delinquency and loans outstanding cover all U.S. commercial banks (Federal Reserve). Tightening is the net percentage of domestic banks reporting tighter standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential property in the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
Method and sources
- Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates (Treasury constant maturities), Data Download Program (data through 2026-09-30)
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) (data through 2026-09-30)
- FRED: Delinquency Rate on Commercial Real Estate Loans (Excluding Farmland), All Commercial Banks (DRCRELEXFACBS) (data through 2026-04-01)
- FRED: Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for CRE Loans Secured by Nonfarm Nonresidential Structures (SUBLPDRCSN) (data through 2026-07-01)
- FRED: Real Estate Loans: Commercial Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks (CREACBM027NBOG) (data through 2026-08-01)
Every figure is pulled by a script from the sources above and written to a data file; the page is generated from that file. Weekly chart points are the last observation of each week. The loan constant is the annual payment on a fully amortizing loan per dollar borrowed. Nothing on this page is investment, lending, or valuation advice for any specific property.
Cite this index
Solsten CRE Financing Index, Q3 2026. Solsten CRE (Nordic Real Estate Services, LLC). https://solstencre.com/financing-index/ Free to quote and reproduce with a link to this page.
Run these rates through a real deal
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